Flags of Ukraine and NATO. Photo Credit: NATO
NATO was founded in Washington 75 years ago and is celebrating its 75 years of completion on 9th July in Washington. US Secretary Blinken ; “In just a few weeks’ time, we’ll gather here in Washington for NATO’s 75th summit, celebrating 75 years of strength, of unity, of growth, of innovation in our Alliance, but also, critically, looking forward to make sure that NATO is fit for purpose for the challenges of today and the challenges tomorrow, making sure that this Alliance continues to do what it’s done so effectively for the last 75 years, and that’s protect our people. Because at the heart of NATO is a commitment from each Ally to come to the defense of any other Ally that may be the victim of aggression– the power of collective defense as the best way to prevent conflict, to deter aggression, to avoid war”.
NATO outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “Standing together, we prevent war and preserve peace. In NATO, the US has 31 friends and Allies. Together, Allies represent half of the world’s economic, and half of the world’s military might, advancing US interests and multiplying America’s power. NATO makes America stronger”. NATO is likely to roll out “concrete ways” to accelerate Ukraine’s eventual membership in the Atlantic alliance during the summit in Washington. “I’m an optimist,” outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told journalists. “I expect that regardless of the shifting political winds … NATO will remain a stable and strong force in an uncertain time.” “Remember the biggest cost and the greatest risk will be if Russia wins in Ukraine; we cannot let that happen.”
The Catch 22
The Catch 22 is simple: NATO operates on the principle of where the security of each ally is linked directly to the security of every other ally. However, Ukraine is not yet a member of the Alliance yet voices within the Alliance have argued that the organization should be doing more to support the Ukrainians in their struggle. The outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced there is now agreement among allies for a NATO Security Assistance and Support package for Ukraine.
Despite promises to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, many NATO Allies are starting to reach their limits in their military assistance to Ukraine. How far NATO should go in supporting Ukraine without Ukraine being a NATO member? But this question appears irrelevant as long the US-NATO continue to support Ukraine without physically getting involved with ground troops. Those Allies concerned about escalation risks would likely continue to urge caution.
Had the Allies been willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, they would have already extended NATO’s Article 5 collective defense guarantee to Ukraine by inviting it to join the Alliance. The fact that, more than two years into the war, some Allies are still not willing. Biden and the US do not want escalation in the year of their election in November 2024. Aim is to prolong the war keep Russia bogged down without Ukraine being extended NATO membership and keep the carrot of NATO membership dangling and achieving their aim to keep Russia engaged on the Ukraine front. Biden has promised; “NATO support to Ukraine till Russia is defeated.” US-NATO vows lasting support for Ukraine but won’t promise membership. The Western Alliance US-NATO is essentially bluffing about the NATO membership, and it could be years of waiting in hope for Ukraine. At the same time, leaving Ukraine permanently on the hope of membership doesn’t look good when the country is fighting for its survival. “It’s hard not to wonder how the alliance will look a year from now – Due to the major reshuffle in US and European politics.”
Ukrainian NATO membership though is the best way to protect the considerable US investment in Ukrainian security in future as well irrespective who comes to power in the US. Biden at this stage has lost the opportunity to guarantee Ukraine with a road map to NATO or membership. Or is it Biden Administration developed cold feet seeing Russia-China coming closer than ever.
Dozens of foreign policy experts had called on NATO members to avoid advancing toward Ukrainian membership at the summit, warning that it would endanger the US and allies. If Ukraine is admitted, the group argues, Russia attacking Ukraine in the future would trigger NATO’s Article 5, which calls on allies to defend the member attacked. The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into NATO as is being done in the present scenario.
Zelensky said; “The summit, was taking place in the “shadow” of the upcoming US election, suggesting that was the reason for Biden’s hesitation. “It’s time to step out of the shadows and get busy and not to wait for November or any other month in defending democracy against Putin.”
NATO leaders have pledged to provide Ukraine with at least $43bn in military aid within the next year to bolster its defences against Russia and formally declared Kyiv on an “Irreversible Path” to membership in the Western military alliance. The pledge is included in a final communique following a NATO summit in Washington. NATO also announced a long-term commitment of security assistance to Ukraine, and confirmed establishment of a new NATO center aimed at ensuring that Ukraine gets a more reliable flow of arms and training from members of the alliance.
The possibility of Ukraine’s future NATO membership being hotly debated ahead of the alliance’s summit in Washington has now been put at rest for the time being with Biden promising; “NATO support to Ukraine till Russia is defeated.”Ukraine remains Out of NATO yet enjoying the near fruits of the NATO military alliance.
Ray of Hope for Peace
US urges India, allies to back efforts for peace resolution in Ukraine war. It appears US has for the first time spoken about peace resolution in Ukraine war. The White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre urged New Delhi to support international efforts for a peaceful resolution. The statement came after Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Putin in Moscow.
“India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in full and frank dialogue, including their relationship with Russia. Jean-Pierre stressed that President Putin alone can end the war, which he started. “The US believes India’s relationship with Russia positions it to encourage President Putin to take this step,” he added. Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit told President Putin that “It is an Era of No War.”
Wonder why the UN does not ask India and others to take the initiative for the peace resolution between the two warring nations Russia and Ukraine under their supervision.