The short answer is, “NO!” Today, Israel escalated the war with Hezbollah in a dangerous and reckless manner by bombing a cluster of buildings in southern Lebanon. There is a flood of contradictory reports — the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) claims it killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, while Hezbollah sources, initially, insisted that Nasrallah is still alive. Later reports from Beirut say that Nasrallah was killed in the bombing. Whether Nasrallah is dead or alive, this will not mark the end, or even the beginning of the end, of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is not a brittle organization. What do I mean? It is not dependent on one key man, or group of men. The Israelis fail to grasp the reality that this is a religious movement and that the death of a leader or a fighter is part of Allah’s plan and they will soldier on. This is not the first time that Israel has killed a senior Hezbollah official, and it will not be the last. But, killing Nasrallah is likely to energize Hezbollah to step up its attacks on Israeli targets in Israel. The cycle of tit-for-tat is going to heat up dramatically in the coming days.
One of the consequences of killing someone like Nasrallah is that a new leader may not have the patience and restraint exhibited by Nasrallah over the last year. He was not a hothead, inclined to react emotionally. A new General Secretary (assuming that Nasrallah is dead) will be under pressure to intensify attacks on Israel, this time using precision guided missiles and potentially striking deep into Israel. Hezbollah will not be alone in this fight. The Houthis also will respond, if for no other reason than to show solidarity with Hezbollah. Shia groups in Iraq are likely to intensify their attacks on US outposts in Syria.
Israeli sources report that reservists have been recalled to their barracks, which may signal that Israel intends to follow up these attacks with a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. If that happens, then Lebanon will be engulfed in a devastating war. We can expect to see mass evacuations of foreign civilians via landing craft and boats in the next few days.
This attack also is likely to fuel more outrage among an already angry public in Turkey, Jordan and Egypt. The Arab and Muslim public will demand sterner action on the part of their governments to hold Israel accountable for what they believe is an inhuman outrage. In short, this is a very precarious situation.
Shifting to Ukraine, the situation there is becoming more desperate for the Ukrainian military. The Financial Times published this blockbuster:
The Ukrainian Army loses MORE THAN HALF of their recruits killed or wounded immediately after arriving at the front, the Financial Times reports.
“Between 50 and 70 percent of new infantrymen were killed or wounded within a few days of the start of their first rotation” Ukrainian Armed Forces commanders say
Ukrainian commanders say that recruits lack basic combat skills and motivation, and most panic when they first come under fire. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 45, making it difficult to perform infantry tasks that require stamina and strength.
Some commanders say that out of 30 fighters in a unit, only five are under 30. A lack of experience and physical fitness makes recruits especially vulnerable, and due to ineffective training, most do not even know how to hold a weapon properly.
Training is still conducted in the “Soviet style,” and instructors themselves often have no combat experience. As a result, Ukrainian units are experiencing rapid losses at the front.
The commanders also emphasize that due to constant rotations and pressure from Russian troops, Ukrainian units are suffering significant losses and are forced to retreat in some areas.
Ray and I discussed the situation in Lebanon, Palestine and Israel with the Judge in our weekly roundtable.
Nima and I also focused on the developments in Lebanon as well as Ukraine.
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