Somalia: Briefing and Consultations
Tomorrow morning (3 October), the Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the situation in Somalia. Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) James Swan will brief on the Secretary-General’s latest 120-day report on the implementation of the mission’s mandate. The report was circulated to Council members on 27 September and covers developments from 24 May to 18 September (S/2024/698). Briefings are also expected from the Special Representative of the African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson (SRCC) for Somalia and Head of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) Mohamed El-Amine Souef and a civil society representative. Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi is expected to represent his country at the meeting.
This is likely to be the last Council meeting on the situation in Somalia and implementation of UNSOM’s mandate ahead of the mission’s expiry on 31 October.
On 3 September, the Secretary-General provided an update on the engagements between the UN and the Somali government on the modalities and timeline for UNSOM’s transition to the UN Country Team (UNCT), in line with the Council’s request in a 16 May letter. He shared Somalia’s proposal, which envisions a two-year phased handover of responsibilities from UNSOM to Somali institutions and the UNCT, commencing in November. The proposal calls for restructuring UNSOM’s mandate with a limited scope that will include supporting state-building efforts, such as through inclusive constitutional review and electoral processes. (For background and more information, see the briefs on Somalia in our June and October 2024 Monthly Forecasts.) At tomorrow’s meeting, several Council members may take note of Somalia’s proposal and express their views on the transition. Some members might call on relevant stakeholders to cooperate closely to advance Somalia’s key national priorities, to consolidate progress made in this regard, and to ensure UNSOM’s smooth and orderly transition. Council members may be interested in learning more about Swan’s recent engagements with the Somali authorities, including the federal member states.
Swan is also expected to provide an update on the latest political, economic, and security developments in Somalia. Today (2 October), Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud convened a high-level meeting of the National Consultative Council (NCC)—which brings together the leaders of the Somali federal government and the federal member states to advance the Somali government’s priorities. The discussions reportedly focused on intensifying operations against Al-Shabaab (a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida), advancing democratisation, and strengthening cooperation between the Somali federal government and federal member states. Puntland, however, has refrained from participating in the NCC meetings since January 2023, when it declared its intention to act independently until the finalisation of a new Somali constitution. Swan and several Council members are likely to stress the need for inclusive and consultative constitutional and electoral processes, while calling on the federal government and federal member states to resolve their differences through dialogue. (For background, see our 22 June What’s in Blue story.)
Tensions continue to escalate between Ethiopia and Somalia, which were sparked by the signing on 1 January of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic in northern Somalia. In light of this agreement, several Somali officials have expressed the view that Ethiopia should withdraw its troops deployed in Somalia by the end of December, when ATMIS is set to complete its drawdown and exit. This has led to disagreements between Somalia’s federal government and some federal member states, which have opposed this view, underscoring the vital role that the Ethiopian forces play in maintaining security within their respective territories. (For background, see the Somalia brief in our February 2024 Monthly Forecast and 28 January and 22 June What’s in Blue stories.) In a 31 August statement, 25 parliamentarians representing the Southwest state opposed the complete withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from the Bay and Bakool regions, a position later supported by the president of Southwest state, Abdiaziz Laftagareen. On 11 September, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre travelled to Baidoa, the capital of Southwest state, for a three-day visit, where he met with Laftagareen. Media reportssuggest that the visit failed to alleviate tensions, however.
Amid these developments, Somalia has sought closer ties with Egypt, which has offered to “contribute to the elements” of the follow-on mission to ATMIS, which the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) welcomed in its 1 August communiqué. On 23 September, Egypt delivered heavy weaponry to the Somali government in Mogadishu, which the Egyptian foreign ministry said aims to build the capabilities of the Somali army to achieve security and stability, combat terrorism, and uphold its sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity. This marks the second delivery of such military support since the signing of the defence cooperation agreement between the two countries on 14 August. Ethiopia, however, has expressed concern that “supply of ammunitions by external forces would further exacerbate the fragile security and would end up in the hands of terrorists”. Tomorrow, Swan and several Council members are expected to encourage Ethiopia and Somalia to exercise restraint and to make efforts towards de-escalating tensions. They may also express support for mediation efforts led by Türkiye to that end.
Another expected focus of tomorrow’s meeting is the security threat posed by Al-Shabaab. The Secretary-General’s report documented 850 security incidents, including 126 attacks involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs), resulting in at least 670 casualties. Council members are likely to condemn these attacks by Al-Shabaab and express support for the government’s efforts to combat terrorism in Somalia. Some members may also condemn incidents of inter-clan violence reported in Southwest, Jubaland, and Galmudug states.
General Michael Langley, Commander of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), indicated in a 26 September interview with VOA news that Al-Shabaab is likely to exploit the disagreements between Ethiopia and Somalia to their advantage and “use that as a recruiting mechanism”. He also expressed concern about the situation in northern Somalia, noting that the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant faction in Somalia (ISIL-Somalia) is increasing in numbers, along with the potential rise of foreign fighters in the area.
Souef is expected to focus on ATMIS’ support for the ongoing offensive operations by the Somali security forces to counter Al-Shabaab. He may also update members on ATMIS’ drawdown process and on ongoing discussions about post-ATMIS security arrangements. In accordance with resolution 2741 of 28 June, which extended ATMIS’ authorisation until 12 August, six of the identified eight forward operating bases (FOBs) were handed over to the Somali security forces during the period covered by the Secretary-General’s report. The handover of the remaining two FOBs was delayed due to logistical and operational challenges until the end of September.
Tomorrow, Souef might cover the visit of a joint AU-UN delegation to Mogadishu between 24 September and 1 October. The visit was conducted in line with resolution 2748 of 15 August, which requested the Secretary-General, jointly with the Chairperson of the AU Commission and in consultation with Somalia and international stakeholders, to submit a report on the overall mission design for the proposed successor mission by 15 November. The delegation was led by Head of the AU’s Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) General Cheikh Dembélé and Director of the Eastern Africa Division in the UN Department for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) Graham Maitland. The delegation engaged with several stakeholders, including senior Somali officials, representatives of ATMIS troop-contributing countries, ATMIS officials, and international partners such as China, Türkiye, Qatar, the UK, and the US. At tomorrow’s meeting, Souef and several members are likely to stress the importance of a smooth transition to prevent any security vacuum. Some members may also emphasise the need to ensure predictable and sustainable financing for the follow-on mission. (For background on Council dynamics regarding financing for the follow-on mission, see the Somalia brief in our October 2024 Monthly Forecast.)
Looking ahead, on 10 October the Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with the participation of Somalia, the AU, and the UN Secretariat. Participants in the meeting are expected to discuss an update from the Secretary-General on the overall mission design and financing options for the proposed successor mission to ATMIS, as requested in resolution 2748.