Ethiopia’s quest for an access to a sea has been the talk of the Horn of Africa States over the past year. This has caused relations between the coastal countries and Ethiopia to worsen and particularly between Somalia and Ethiopia whereas the latter has blatantly assaulted Somalia through an MoU which it has forced on one of the northern regions of Somalia. Somalia has not taken the story lightly as this assault adversely affects not only its territorial integrity but also its sovereignty. It is the subject of this paper wherein we explore the possibilities of Ethiopia accessing a sea.
The Historical Root of the Story
Ethiopia is a country that was officially created in 1932 by Ex-Emperor Haile Selassie I. Before then, the country was called the Abyssinian Empire which was constituted by force and through the support of the European colonial countries of Great Britain and France, by a little King of Shoa, who later on, towards the end of the nineteenth century, crowned himself as Emperor Menelik II. This historical perspective is important for understanding the reasons behind the proposal, hereinafter, for Ethiopia to have access to a sea.
We must note that there were other countries in the region before the colonial countries appeared in the region, when the Suez Canal was opened in 1869. There was the Axumite kingdom which had broken down into Abyssinian provinces Tigray and Amhara) and fighting princes and Eritrea which was then an Ottoman vassal state under Egyptian rule. The access of Axum to the sea was long gone at least some centuries before the Europeans showed up in the region, and more particularly Italy which took over Eritrea from the Egyptians.
Abyssinia was then engulfed in its own princely wars much like it is today and was mostly in the northern highlands of the country. Today those regions are marked by the Tigray State and the Amhara State. In the place of that actual story, Ethiopia claims it had access to a sea through Axum and it should have that access back. It is kind of weird reasoning!
It is different, at least, from how modern nation states are formed. The world only recognize the nations as they are born and not on historical backgrounds, which would mean if taken seriously that France and the UK should be part of Italy, as both were parts of the Great Roman Empire of long ago and so was Spain and others. It is a historical fallacy which the current Ethiopia continually repeats.
These historical fallacies were, indeed, propagated by paid agents of the colonial and post colonial era. They included Richard Pankhurst, Christopher Clapham and Robert D. Kaplan. It is a sad story of a country whose legacies are mostly relegated to being an appendix to West Asian civilizations, instead of its own African roots.
Peace and stability are paramount for any economic and sustainable development. In Ethiopia, this could only be achieved through a breakup of the country to its component parts as neither the Tigray State nor the Amhara State nor the Oromia State are willing to live with each other anymore. The Somali State in the east, the traditional headache of the country, is watching and bidding its time to make its final move. The other states in the west and south of the country like the Benishangul-Gumuz and Sidama may also go their own way.
The proposition
The best possible scenario, however, for the country is to have the Tigray State join their brothers in the Eritrea through an organized and well worked out plan. This would enable it to have access to the sea again and perhaps reconstitute a semblance of the Axumite country but with a different name. The Amhara State could also join this group such that northern Ethiopia remains intact and works together. It will be good for that region to settle down and spend their energies in rebuilding and reshaping a completely new country.
The Oromo people could create their own republic, of which they dream all the time in their Oromia regions, while the other states within Ethiopia will each have to go its own way including the Somali State which can either stand alone or join their brothers in Djibouti or Somalia, and preferably Somalia.
Commercial access to ports will not be denied to any of these new countries and there would be better relations among the peoples of the region. It is a region which should have been united through its current set up but which the leaderships of the region and more particularly the Ethiopian administration has messed up big time.
This could be a strategic option if the Ethiopian administration insists on this mad quest for grabbing other people’s lands and seas. A mutually beneficial commercial access was offered to the current Ethiopian administration, but they rejected it, through the illegal MoU it forced one of the regions of northern Somalia to sign, and they are unable to reverse themselves as they seem to be obligated to others to proceed with the futile process.
The offer of the Ethiopian administration to sell down Ethiopian assets to obtain access to a sea is an unworkable proposition. They are being actually forced, anyway through agreements with the IMF and the World Bank, to sell off national assets to raise capital and to allow foreign capital to follow into the country. Once this happens, no one knows what the value of these assets would be. They may be ground down to nothing in the not-too-distant future.
Such assets may include the GERD, the Ethiopian Airlines and the Ethio Telecom. Why would the northern regions of Somalia accept such an exchange – a port of recognition when Ethiopia could move all its business to the newly acquired port or ports, God forbid? Ethiopia, should it continue to exist, could also create new companies to replace the dying corporations of the Ethiopian airlines or Ethio telecom and so on.
Conclusion
The proposition is, indeed, intended to correct historical errors, which brought together through force and fear differing nations that have their own life systems into an empire which is unable to be kept together anymore. The many nations of the country are no longer afraid to bolt out. Fear is out of the equation. The recent change of power to the Oromo in 2018 through PM Abiye, was expected to smoothen a transition from the empire to a normal country with differing constituents, but the administration has erred and blundered. They followed the old nineteenth century Menelik book, which is unworkable in a 21st century civilization, where technology and social media and fast information dominate discussions. There is nothing truly hidden and the books are open. Lies no longer work, although they could be controlled and channelled.
Ethiopia is this giant diseased country where the inertia of breaking up has already started. It will be difficult to stop and accordingly an organized break up will be better than a disorganized one, as seems to be the case now.