I believe that the FBI’s announcement on November 8 — three days after Trump’s victory — of an alleged Iranian plot to kill an Iranian American journalist was part of an intelligence information operation to manufacture a casus belli to attack Iran. I wrote about this plot in my last post (read here). I have checked with a retired FBI agent, a retired CIA case officer and a senior former DEA agent and asked them to critique my analysis. They all agreed with my conclusion — i.e., the 2019 bust of Farhad Shakeri in Sri Lanka, while trying to move 92 kilos of heroin, was done with the help of DEA and DEA then recruited Shakeri and CC-1 to become confidential informants. Shakeri apparently was directed to move to Iran and get a job in order to create his bona fides as an Iranian intelligence asset. It is likely that the CIA played a role in orchestrating this operation.
Why? This was part of a broader effort to create a reason to attack Iran and present Donald Trump with a war before he could assume the Presidency. Well, that plan appears to be falling apart. Trump dispatched Elon Musk to NYC to talk to Iran’s UN Ambassador on Friday. Why Elon? It is a clear message to Iran that Trump is serious about engaging them diplomatically because he sent a guy that all of the world knows is a new best friend of Donald. Iran will not be wondering if Elon is speaking on his own. Nope. Elon is doing so with the blessing of Donald Trump. By engaging Iran, Trump is trying to prevent a war, not hasten one.
The frantic freakout underway over Trump’s nominations of some junior Neo-cons and war hawks has led to widespread condemnation among the anti-war crowd. While I share their alarm at the names of Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, and Michael Waltz as folks who are on the record advocating stupid military responses to Russia, Iran and China, let me suggest another way to look at this. Trump’s rapid appointments of his cabinet — the fastest in Presidential history — may be intended as a negotiating ploy, with the Deep State and foreign governments.
What do I mean? I believe Trump’s nominations of what can be charitably described as hardliners, is intended to set a benchmark or signal to other countries — i.e., he’s going to be tough. Yet, at the same time he appears to be assembling a war cabinet, Trump dispatches Musk to chat with the Iranians. Art of the deal? Check out the following video from 2015. Trump is talking about trying to make a deal between Israel and the Palestinians. You will be surprised to learn who he says is the party not serious about negotiating:
I discussed some of the Trump picks with Nima and with the Judge and Ray McGovern today. I did not have a chance to present the thesis outlined above. Not saying it is correct. Just suggesting another way to look at what is unfolding. Trump’s rapid organization of his administration is without precedent. Unlike previous Presidents, he is under no pressure to pay off big donors. He came into the election with a plan in mind and has moved quickly to implement it. What is that plan? All of us on the outside can only speculate, but I am pretty sure that Trump is not throwing darts at a board filled with pictures and names. We will have a better idea come January 21st whether he was making terrible errors in judgment or following a plan. I will leave it to you to debate.